Sacramento Will Further Test Pablo Lopez’s Ability To Suppress Home Runs

Pablo López has battled with how and when hitters hit home runs off him throughout his career.

That was the case again on Wednesday when he started against the Tampa Bay Rays at George Steinbrenner Field, a minor league park in Tampa. Typically, it’s the New York Yankees’ spring training home and their Low-A affiliate’s park. However, it’s become the Rays’ home for 2025 following the devastation Hurricane Milton left on Tropicana Field last October.

Coming into his start against Tampa, López had only allowed three home runs all season and only one in his previous seven starts. His 2-1 changeup down the middle to Brandon Lowe started the scoring for the Rays in the bottom of the fourth to put them up 1-0. Then a 1-0 sinker down and in on Junior Caminero with a runner on first extended the lead to 3-0.

With the Twins playing in a minor-league park, it’s natural to wonder whether these home runs fly out of any of the other 28 MLB parks. Statcast showed Lowe’s home run to right-center going out in all but one stadium, Oracle Park in San Francisco. Caminero’s to left center field would have only stayed inside the ballpark if they were at Coors Field in Colorado or PNC Park in Pittsburgh.

So, if the new ballpark for MLB games wasn’t the factor, why did López have his first game of the season where he surrendered multiple home runs?

Pitch location was a factor. Both home runs he gave up came off pitches that landed well within areas where Lowe and Canterino have had hard contact against pitches in those locations. The exit velocity they made on contact was also another factor. Lowe had a 102.1 MPH exit velo on his home run while Caminero had 103.1 MPH.

The game-time temperatures may also have played a factor in López’s performance. He changed between three different undershirts and jerseys between innings to keep himself cool in Minnesota’s hottest game of the season. It was only 89 degrees at first pitch, but the humidity made it feel much closer to 100, which helped the home run balls travel better.

Still, López is on pace to give up fewer home runs than last year. He had 26 total and allowed 12 through the first two months of the season. However, he’s experienced regression with his changeup, which opponents are hitting for home runs.

Last year, his changeup had a .281 opponents’ average against it, and he only allowed one home run and 10 extra base hits out of the 43 he surrendered on it. This season, López has already allowed three of his five home runs on the pitch, but just one additional extra base hit for a double

Spin rate is one reason why López is having trouble with his changeup. In 2025, his changeup sits at a spin rate of 1,763 RPMs (revolutions per minute), the lowest RPM he’s ever had for any of his pitches. It’s down 345 RPMs from his 2108 RPMs on his changeup last year, which was a career high for López. The league average for what’s considered a good RPM is between 2000 and 2400 RPMs.

A slower spin rate on the pitch would explain why hitters find it easier to hit over the fence whenever López throws it behind in the count.

While the spin rate on López’s changeup has declined more than his other pitches, he has seen an overall decline in his spin rates on all his pitches. The other four – fastball, curveball, sweeper, and sinker – don’t have as wide a gap as the changeup. López’s sinker has the second-largest decline at only 67 RPMs.

Some of this may just come with being another year older and having more natural wear and tear on his arm. Still, the 2024 spin rates account for the whole season and don’t indicate where he was through his first 10 starts a year ago.

López and Joe Ryan are the only Twins pitchers on this road trip who will have played in two minor-league ballparks when the Twins arrive in Sacramento to face off against the nomadic A’s on Monday. The weather won’t be much better when he’s set to make his next start in Sacramento on Tuesday. Temperatures will reach no lower than 86 by first pitch, and the ball carries even more in hot weather in Sacramento than Tampa.

It will be more difficult for López to keep that ball in the park in Sacramento, which may magnify an issue that arose on Wednesday. But if he can get through this next start, only giving up two or fewer home runs, it could mean that his home run issue is on the right track, and López could be on track to set a career low in home runs allowed this season.