Home Depot Makes Case at Analyst Meeting for Home Improvement Market Recovery

As part of the presentation, Home Depot reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and set out its forecast for 2026 including a comparable sales advance of flat to 2%, total sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5% and an adjusted diluted earnings-per-share increase of flat to 4%. At the same time, Home Depot reported it plans to leverage the technology it has developed, the company’s ability to offer shoppers superior product assortments customer service and a demonstrated ability to connect with consumers as it rolls into the New Year.

In its presentation to investors, Home Depot made the argument that a current housing shortage of two to five million households in the United States and household formation of 12 to 14 million cases would translate into 14 to 19 million homes needed over the next five years, creating a major market opportunity for the retailer. Home Depot pointed to market research revealeing $22 billion in pent up demand arising from the deferral of home improvement over the past two years. Given that, spending in the home improvement market has significant potential to grow substantially in the near term.

The “Market Recovery Case” includes greater potential as the home improvement sector gains traction.

“Our Market Recovery Case reflects our performance expectations once we see momentum in housing activity and increased spend on larger projects driven by pent-up demand,” said Richard McPhail, executive vice president and CFO.  “We believe that the pressures in housing will correct and provide the home improvement market with support for growth faster than the general economy, and we expect to continue to grow faster than our market. In our Accelerated Recovery Case, we could see sales and earnings per share grow faster in the event of a sharper housing recovery.”

The “Market Recovery Case” kicks in to the extent that the housing market and home improvement sector begins to experience greater demand faster than the immediate trends foretell, which the Home Depot suggested could occur in the short term and would boost its business and related metrics, generating:

• Total comparable sales advance of 4% to 5%
• Total sales growth of 5% to 6%
• Diluted earnings-per-share increase in the mid-to-high-single-digits
• Operating profit growth faster than sales.

As part of the the analyst presentation, Billy Bastek, Home Depot executive vice president of merchandising, said, the company is advancing its connection with consumers by focusing on three major objectives: “Maintaining our product authority, having the best vendors with the best brands with the best innovation to drive growth and lending the retail industry in merchandising excellence.”

In working through those objectives, Bastek said Home Depot will prioritize its ability to present consumers with a unique product assortment based on merchandise from national, exclusive and private brands “while also creating a compelling and differentiated value proportion across all channels.”

To do so, Home Depot will emphasize collaboration with vendors as part of maintaining authority in home improvement innovation and leadership

Home Depot consumer outreach will include tie-ins to major sporting events, including the 2026 Men’s NCAA Basketball Final Four and the FIFA World Cup soccer championship. However, the company is taking other approaches to connecting with consumers, including a just-announced creator portal designed to connect digital content producers with home improvement enthusiasts. The company developed the portal as a centralized hub where creators can experience content inspiration, campaign opportunities and expertise that can aid them to fashion home improvement content including around DIY projects and decor tips. With that, creators can develop product recommendations and deliver inspiration for homeowners, pros and DIYers, according to Home Depot. Content creators can connect with Home Depot’s vast network of suppliers and products as well. And they can earn commissions through shoppable links, access tools to maximize content opportunities and track performance through the portal.

Home Depot already has enrolled thousands of creators, it asserted, and now is taking applications from the public. The ultimate goal is to create a wide-ranging community of content creators and users tied into the Home Depot.

“The Home Depot Creator portal isn’t just a website, it’s a community that drives meaningful engagement with current and future customers through talented personalities who give them confidence to tackle their home improvement projects,” said Molly Battin, Home Depot senior vice president and chief marketing officer, adding the portal initiative can link with other forms of shopper engagement. “We know our customers love sports, so we’re especially excited to launch this program with our Starting Lineup that will deliver tailored soccer content such as how to transform your backyard for your own neighborhood soccer matches and viewing parties.”

From the overall perspective, Ted Decker, Home Depot chair, president, and CEO, noted, “We are focused on growing sales and delivering exceptional shareholder returns, supported by our culture and values. The investments we’ve made over the last several years have further strengthened our distinct competitive advantages and position us well to grow share in an approximately $1.1 trillion total addressable market.”